Editorial Columns

Anticipating the University of the Future

As president of Penn State, I have over the years received scores of letters from former students who tell me of the difference education has made in their lives.

Like 36 percent of the students who attend Penn State, I, too, was the first person in my family to go to college. I understand and deeply believe in the power of education to transform lives and open doors that otherwise might remain closed.

College is now seen as the ticket to middle-class America. In a study by the American Council on Education, an overwhelming percentage of respondents said that the "right education and training" was an important factor in individual success.

A report released in October and titled "Education Pays" offers even stronger support for obtaining a college degree. The publication, compiled by the College Board, a not-for-profit group best known for its SAT program, reports that those who earn a degree substantially boost their lifetime earning power--gaining roughly a million dollars more with a baccalaureate degree and about $3 million more with a doctorate.

Today, more than 60 percent of high school graduates nationally apply to college, compared to less than 50 percent in 1980.

But there are a number of trends in higher education that are reshaping our institutions and the opportunities available. Among these challenges are rising costs, increased competition, declining resources from state government, and changing demographics, to name a few.

The impact of our changing demography, while bright in some sections of the United States, is not so glowing here in the Northeast.

But if you don't have a child who is ready to go off to college, you may be asking yourself, "Why should I care about the plight of higher education or the demographics behind it?" The answer can be found in Pennsylvania's economy.

Taxpayers derive a multitude of direct and indirect benefits from postsecondary education. Higher education spells better jobs, higher earnings, more tax revenue and lower poverty levels. An educated populace is connected to more community involvement, lower incarceration rates, higher voting rates, increased volunteerism, and a decreased demand on public subsidy. All of society profits from higher education.

In fact, the plight of public higher education should be a matter of urgent interest to residents of Pennsylvania, where shifting demographics are pointing to a host of mounting problems facing the Commonwealth.  

There are more than 600,000 students enrolled in Pennsylvania's degree-granting institutions and about 60 percent of them attend public institutions. Since 1989, the percentage of Pennsylvania high school graduates choosing to go on to college has surpassed the national rate, climbing to a recent high of 73 percent. This sounds like a tremendous windfall for Pennsylvania higher education and, indeed, enrollment and budgetary disasters would have confronted many Pennsylvania colleges and universities had this upswing in college attendance not offset the dramatic decline in the number of high school graduates coming out of our state.

The decline has been steady. In the 20-year period from 1975 to 1995, the number of high school graduates in Pennsylvania dropped by nearly 70,000 students to a total of about 119,000--one of the most profound demographic trends Pennsylvania has ever seen.

Because demographics are not evenly distributed, other areas of the country are gearing up for a boom in their college-age population, but Pennsylvania will experience little of that echo.  This means competition among Pennsylvania's institutions for in-state students will intensify and schools will begin to invest more in out-of-state recruitment and in attracting non-traditional students.

As our population of youth declines, the proportion of those considered elderly is on the rise. By 2025, Pennsylvania's 65-plus population will reach 21 percent. Currently, the Commonwealth ranks second in the nation--bested only by Florida -- in the percent of its population who are elderly.

This gerontological drift is already affecting our state, as well as the support that colleges and universities here receive. Aging populations put additional pressure on state governments as health care spending expands, leaving fewer dollars to go toward other initiatives. Higher education has for years found itself on the short end of the stick when it comes to state funding priorities.

These demographic shifts mean Pennsylvania's higher education leaders must pay increased attention to adult learners and their needs for job training or retraining. These areas are already prominent features of higher education and will most likely expand in the future.

But population changes are prompted by more than just births and deaths. Migration plays a large role. In fact, every year, up to 40 million Americans move. But in Pennsylvania, more people are moving out of the state than moving in, and it is the younger set that is likely to leave. Over the last decade, Pennsylvania lost more young workers than any other state, according to a recent report from the Brookings Institution. The report goes on to say that Pennsylvania lacks the population dynamics fundamental to flourishing economies.

This "brain drain," as it is usually called, is a challenge to Pennsylvania and its colleges and universities, who are producing educated and skilled citizens who must leave for other states due to a lack of adequate jobs.  The Brookings Institution report calls for Pennsylvania--which lags competing states -- to make investment in education and workforce training a priority. It also calls for larger investments in medical facilities, like The Hershey Medical Center, that will help fuel economic expansion.

What about the diversity of our population? While national demographic projections suggest that about 65 percent of the growth in population in the U.S. through the year 2020 will be in ethnic minority groups, Pennsylvania is an exception to this trend and will remain significantly white at 82 percent. This profile hinders higher education's ability to provide its students with an educational experience that mirrors the nation's diversity.

Other less-recognized demographic trends altering the landscape of Pennsylvania and its colleges and universities include the rising percentage of women attending college. Today, the majority of undergraduate students, 56 percent, are female. Nationally, for every 100 men who earn bachelor's degrees, 133 women do the same. This trend raises a range of questions for educators and policy makers, as do the changes in family structures that are occurring.

Today's students arrive on campus with a broader array of personal and familial challenges that place additional demands on health care facilities, counseling services and financial aid offices. Most of our students in the future will require financial assistance and more will have jobs to help them pay for college. Working students come with their own set of challenges--among them the challenge of persisting in college as well as taking longer to earn their degree.

At Penn State, we are working to stay ahead of the demographic trends I have mentioned.

For Pennsylvania and its colleges and universities, our destiny may seem to be in peril. But demographic shifts are slow and gradual, providing us time to adjust and prepare for these new challenges.

Decisions about public spending and education must take into account the Commonwealth's changing demography. As inventor Charles Kettering said, "We should all be concerned about the future, as we will be spending the rest of our lives there."